WSI Energycast Outlook Calls for Warm Period in North Central & Northeast, Becoming Cooler in the Western US
WSI and ESAI issue an update of special interest to energy traders
Andover, MA, July 22, 2008 - WSI Corporation issued the seasonal outlook for the upcoming three-month period (August-October) on July 15. WSI expects the upcoming three-month period to average cooler than normal in the Southeast and in the major population centers along the Pacific Coast, with warmer-than-normal temperatures elsewhere, especially in the northern Rockies and northern Plains. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).
The monthly breakdown follows:
In August:
- Northeast - Warmer than normal
- Southeast - Cooler than normal
- N Central - Warmer than normal
- S Central - Warmer than normal, except south TX
- Northwest - Warmer than normal, except coastal locations
- Southwest - Warmer than normal, except coastal locations
Expected Market Impact (provided by ESAI)
The WSI August forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures throughout
the Northeast and North Central regions. Cooler temperatures will prevail
in the Southeast, California and most of Texas. Injections to gas storage
are likely to be in the normal range during August. Lower hydro availability
in the West could be a bullish factor for gas demand. Power prices in
the Northeast markets will be firm with warmer-than-normal temperatures
and a slightly higher probability of heat events. With normal-to-cooler
temperatures expected in California and Texas, power prices should remain
moderate in relation to prevailing natural gas prices.
In September:
- Northeast - Warmer than normal
- Southeast - Warmer than normal
- N Central - Warmer than normal
- S Central - Cooler than normal, except east TX
- Northwest - Cooler than normal
- Southwest - Cooler than normal
Expected Market Impact (provided by
ESAI)
The WSI September forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures in
the Northeast with cooler temperatures prevalent throughout most of the
western U.S. Injections to gas storage are likely to be slghtly higher-than-normal
due to the lower probability of late season heat in most areas. Cooler
temperatures in September should moderate power prices except in the Northeast
where warmer temperature expectations would be moderately bullish for
power prices.
In October:
- Northeast - Warmer than normal
- Southeast - Warmer than normal
- N Central - Warmer than normal
- S Central - Warmer than normal
- Northwest - Cooler than normal, except ID/MT/WY
- Southwest - Cooler than normal, except NM
Expected Market Impact (provided by
ESAI)
The WSI October forecast indicates warmer-than-normal temperatures in
the Northeast and North Central regions with cooler temperatures west
of the Rockies. Injections to gas storage are likely to be close to normal.
Power prices in most regions will be more dependent upon generator planned
maintenance programs as load will be moderate with shoulder season temperatures.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford, “We expect August to be characterized by above-normal temperatures in the northern US and relatively cool temperatures across much of the southern US. The most intense heat will likely be confined to the Northeast, northern Rockies, and northern Plains. The very wet ground in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes states will likely limit the magnitude of the heat in those regions. A continuation of the relatively cool and wet recent pattern will continue in the Southeast. As fall approaches, above-normal temperatures will continue to persist in the northeastern quarter of the country, with below-normal temperatures becoming confined to parts of the western US.”
WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, issues its seasonal outlook twice-monthly. The next new forecast package (for September-November) issued on August 19.
About WSI Corporation
WSI Corporation is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions
for professionals in the energy, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal
and state government agencies. WSI is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts
with offices in Birmingham, England, and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Landmark
Communications. More information about WSI can be found at www.wsi.com.
About ESAI Corporation
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated
to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing information about world-wide energy
markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients
with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are
headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil,
natural gas, and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services visit
www.esai.com
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